2007 Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions
June 16, 2008
If you’re an everyday backer of the Cincinnati Reds, you’ll find yourself in the red by the end of the season. I was surprised that the Reds were able to stay in the National League Wild Card hunt so long last season, but with the Brewers and Cubs both getting better, it appears that Cincy will be bumped.
If you looked up the word oxymoron in the dictionary, it might say Reds pitching. The Reds haven’t had any quality starting pitching in recent years until last season when Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang provided a decent one-two punch. In 2005, the Reds finished 19 games below .500 on the road, but in 2006 they improved seven games away from home. That is a direct result of better pitching. However, Cincinnati will either back slide or plateau in 2007 as the Reds other three starters and their pen will hurt this team. Bullpen by committee has never been a successful way to close out teams.
The Reds best chance to win over the last few seasons has been to out hit teams. Production dropped off in 2006, however, which could have cost the Reds a playoff appearance in a down year for the NL. Freel gives the Reds their only speed threat in the lead off spot. Hattleberg is a great contact hitter who I would love to see the Reds hit and run with when Freel gets on to start the game. Ken Griffey Junior is still talented, but there’s no way this guy stays healthy all season. I like the Reds move to take him out of center. I think it could improve his health by relieving some additional pounding on his body. Hopefully it won’t take away the confidence that has made him one of baseball’s best sluggers over the last decade and a half. Dunn needs to bounce back with a strong season in 2007 after a drop off in production in 2006. I know that’s picky for a guy who hit 40 bombs, but they need his RBI’s back over the 100 mark. Edwin Encarnacion is also going to have to get into the run producing act. 72 RBI’s won’t cut it especially if Junior misses any significant amount of time. It’s quite clear that this is a talented offense with capable bats.
As far as betting Cincy goes, totals could be our best option-specifically overs. Inconsistent pitching along with their power hitting made them a strong overs team in 2005, especially at home where the Reds and their opponents combined for over 11 runs per game. I’m normally not a big fan of playing lots of totals, but this should be something to watch for once again in 2007. 2006 saw Cincy’s pitching improve which hurt our overs plays on the Reds. We’ll keep a close eye on this again in the early going to see if playing overs on Cincy can once again be a profitable wager.
Despite a down year offensively, the Reds feel they still have enough pieces in place. It won’t matter how good the power numbers are this season, pitching will fail this team.
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