Free Super Bowl Prop Bet for February 1, 2009
January 31, 2009
***SUPER BOWL SUNDAY***
RED HOT 11-4 L15 7* NFL Top Plays (73%)!
33-17 L50 NFL Picks (66%)!
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NFL
Kurt Warner – Total Passing Yards – Under 259.5 (-115)
This may surprise some of you, but I’m taking the under here. This is one of these lines where the books are begging the public to jump on the over. If you do the math, Warner has averaged 281.7 yards per games including the regular season and the playoffs, but yet the books have set his number 22 yards lower here? I smell a rat. Usually the prop bet numbers are based on season averages and based on this line, the books are anticipating a less productive game, yards-wise, from Warner, and it makes sense. Arizona has made running the football more of a priority in the postseason, Warner is facing the NFL’s No. 1 ranked passing defense, and Pittsburgh has a ball control offense which figures to run more clock and give the Cards less possessions than its previous playoff opponents. Warner has been under this mark in each of Arizona’s last 3 road games, including a second round playoff game at Carolina when he threw for only 220 yards. Warner may be the most focused player on either team heading into this game, and I can’t see him playing poorly, but I also can’t see the Steelers allowing him to go off through the air.
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