San Diego Chargers New England Patriots Playoff Game Prediction

May 22, 2008

The San Diego Chargers New England Patriots odds have the home Patriots favored by 14.5 points at several online sportsbooks. The last time we saw such a big dog in a championship game, the Patriots were ironically the teams catching points against the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl back in 2002. With St. Louis laying two touchdowns, that upset was considered one of the biggest in Super Bowl history and is, at least, partially responsible for starting the Patriots’ dynasty. If San Diego can pull off the upset here, we are looking at similar caliber of upset. The Pats knocked the then NFL-best Chargers out of the playoffs last season and San Diego will be looking for revenge against the best in the NFL this year.

It comes as no surprise to me that these are the teams we are seeing in the AFC title game. New England is 17-0 and one step closer to becoming the best NFL team in history. The Chargers have won 8 games in a row and were able to knock out the defending Super Bowl champs last week without L.T. and with Phillip Rivers out most of the second half. The Chargers were able to win with their defense as they have much of the season which is very surprising for Norv Turner team. Its pass rush, led by Mr. Merriman has been a thorn in the side of every opponent during San Diego’s current streak and it will be crucial to having a shot against New England. For those of you who are nervous Chargers fans right now with your stars all banged up, you can rest a little bit easier knowing that Rivers is expected to be near 100 percent by Sunday. Tomlinson is also expected to play, but his status is still listed as uncertain. Gates stepped out on the field to the surprise of many last week and we can expect him to go again. Some no-names and has-beens carried San Diego at times last week, but the stars are going to have to step up in this one if San Diego wants to win the game.

The Patriots cut through the hyped Jacksonville defense like a knife through warm butter last week with Tom Brady proving why he is the league’s MVP. Brady only had two incompletions as he led the Pats to 31 points and a comfortable win. New England also showed off its balance by pounding Maroney to gain 145 rushing yards on the day. Moss served as a more than adequate decoy, letting the Chargers know that the other guys can certainly beat you as well. The Pats defense did give up 270 yards through the air and they will be seeing a more pure passer in Rivers this week. It was obvious that New England said that they weren’t going to let the Jags running game beat them. They’ll exercise the same strategy this week without a doubt and it will be up to Rivers to take advantage.

Important Trends to note:

The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
The Chargers are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
The Over is 4-0-1 in Chargers last 5 games as a road underdog.
The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head to head.

Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championship games.
New England is just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
The Over is 16-6-1 in Patriots last 23 games overall. The Under is 9-2-1 in Patriots last 12 playoff home games.

Odds:
San Diego Chargers +14.5 at BetUS
New England Patriots -14.5 at BetUS

Total is set at 49

Predicted Score:

San Diego Chargers 17
New England Patriots 31

Updated January 14th, 2008

San Diego Chargers New England Patriots Playoff Game Prediction

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