2007 Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks NBA Playoff Predictions

June 16, 2008


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Oddsmakers were off just a tad when they favored the Dallas Mavericks by 10 points over the Golden State Warriors in game one on this number eight seed versus number one seed Western Conference matchup. The Warriors have now won six straight games over Dallas and with Sunday night’s victory, you have to think that Golden State just might have a chance to pull off the unthinkable series upset of the best team in the NBA.

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As good as Dallas is and has been all season, there is no question that the Warriors are in the Mavs’ heads. You would have thought that the Warriors were the best team in the NBA the way they dictated what Dallas’ lineup would be throughout much of the game. Don Nelson has vowed to play small ball against his former team. Avery Johnson actually adjusted what Dallas does against the worst Western Conference team in the playoffs instead of just playing the game which led the Mavs to the NBA’s best record. He tried to match up small with the Warriors instead of playing his big lineups and pounding Golden State inside. This has undoubtedly left the Warriors with soaring confidence and the Mavericks scratching their heads.

I know that Dallas didn’t shoot well in game one. Dirk Nowitzky was just 4-of-16 from the field , Josh Howard was just 8-of-21, and Jerry Stackhouse was 0-for-6. I attribute some of this to the rustiness that comes with sitting starters down the stretch. Golden State had to go 9-1 down the home stretch to even advance to the postseason. All of the Warriors players hadn’t missed a minute heading into game one and it showed.

It’s not all rustiness for Dallas though. The Mavericks have the pressure of blowing it in the NBA Finals last year and being the favorite to win it all this year on their shoulders and Don Nelson’s “Dirk Defense,” running two defenders at him every time he touches the ball, might just have more to do with Dirk’s off shooting night in game one than being a little rusty.

The Warriors stole Dallas’ home court advantage which is was what they needed to do to give themselves a chance. Now that Dallas has been ignited by its playoff opening loss, we can expect this thing to be even when the series heads to Golden State. I still have to believe that Dallas wins this series, but the Warriors could still cost the Mavs an NBA Championship. Many feel that if the Phoenix Suns didn’t go seven games with its first two opponents in last year’s playoffs that the Suns would have represented the west in the NBA Finals as they ran out of gas in the conference semis. The longer Golden State can hang around in this series, I have to think that it decreases Dallas’ chances of getting back to the finals. If Golden State goes up two games with another win over Dallas Wednesday, I’ll have to believe that Dallas might not even get out of the first round.

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