2007 New York Jets Picks & Predictions

May 21, 2008

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If it weren’t for the New Orleans Saints last season, the New York Jets would have been the Cinderella story of the year improving from 4-12 in 2005 to 10-6 in 2006. What will 2007 bring for Mangini’s boys? Find out in Dave Price’s 2007 New York Jets predictions.

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It seems the Jets shocked everyone but themselves with their 10-6 record and postseason berth last season. Most analysts predicted the cellar for the franchise in the first year under the young leadership duo of head coach Eric Mangini and General Manager Mike Tannenbaum. But the healthy return of QB Chad Pennington and a proven Patriots-style system helped the Jets improve by and impressive six games over their 4-12 mark in 2005. Obviously, the Jets won’t be able to make as big a jump in 2007 and they will likely even back track slightly. But, with the presence of a proven running back in Thomas Jones added to an offense that struggled to adequately replace the injured Curtis Martin last season, the Jets should be able to generate more scoring this season. The team still has some major question marks on defense and on the right side of the offensive line, and the schedule promises to be more challenging, but the Jets have the pieces in place to contend for another playoffs berth despite these obstacles.

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s offensive design features many attributes of a West Coast attack, likely due to QB Chad Pennington’s lack of arm strength. With the addition of running back Thomas Jones, Schottenheimer has an established back who can grind out tough yards and also has big play capability. It’s a control-based plan with lots of short throws out of the backfield to Jones and Leon Washington with lots of motion and no-huddle looks and a good amount of shotgun, something that Pennington prefers. The Jets like to use a two-tight end approach, particularly in short yardage situations. Wide receiver Brad Smith also fills a utility roll, lining up in the slot or in the backfield, making him someone opposing defenses must account for. With his history as a QB in college, he is a great decoy when carrying out fakes and is a great trick play player — kind of like Cordell Stewart was for the Steelers.

Coach Eric Mangini brought along his preference for a base 3-4 scheme that mixes in 4-3 looks. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton likes to apply pressure with the blitz and particularly likes to safety blitz with Kerry Rhodes. This has been a problematic philosophy in the past as it gives teams big play opportunities, but I don’t see Sutton soon changing his ways. The defense is not only assignment-based, which limit’s the inside linebacker’s freedom, but it is speed-based. Inside linebacker Jonathan Vilma and nose tackle Dewayne Robertson are both undersized for the scheme, and the defensive line lacks beef as well. I’ve always thought you should create a system to house your personnel and not the other way around, but many coordinators want nothing to do with that philosophy. Outside linebacker’s Bryan Thomas and Victor Hobson have thrived in this scheme though with much of the action directed their way. The cornerback position is an area of concern, with serviceable players but no lockdown corner. Watch the Patriots really rack up the points against the Jets this season exploiting this weakness.

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